The UK’s sterling has continued to weaken against the US Dollar, even after the UK government announced a plan to restructure the national debt. The pound has been particularly weak against the dollar since the Bank of England raised interest rates in March. That move was widely criticized because it was seen as having no direct benefit for the UK economy.
So what does the latest GBP/USD Shrugs Off Dire UK Borrowing Data say? It is hard to say. In theory, there is some room for the GBP to strengthen against the USD, but the recent string of bad news may have dampened those expectations. For example, we saw that the Bank of England did indeed hike its interest rate, and there was some good news in the economic data.
But then there was the Budget, which disappointed many by failing to show much in the way of progress. The Chancellor’s attempt to make a case for further borrowing seemed a little desperate, even if it was a bit misguided. There were some good ideas, but some very bad ideas as well. The Chancellor claimed that it would be difficult to find a partner willing to finance the UK deficit without resorting to interest rates. That may not be too far from the truth.
So, will the GBP rise or fall? It is hard to see the Chancellor’s efforts leading to a long term improvement in the position of the UK economy. Indeed, there are signs that the UK is starting to feel the brunt of low interest rates. We saw that during the second quarter, when we actually saw some negative effects on UK GDP. As long as the economy remains so weak, it is difficult to see how the UK could ever get back to a state of healthy economic growth.
The British Pound (GBP) is currently down about 4 pence to its lowest point against the dollar in more than six years. At this point, it would be difficult for the pound to get back to where it was before the Bank of England raised interest rates. But that does not mean that the pound should stay where it is now. Indeed, the last few months have seen the UK stock market goes into freefall. in the wake of the financial crisis, and that has put a major dent in investment in the market.
The GBP is likely to fall further, but it will need to. If the Chancellor’s plans for increased borrowing were to fail, it would have an adverse effect on the economy and the pound would probably need to fall further before being able to climb back up.
But the current weakness is still enough to be worrying. That means that it is time to start looking for any sign of hope that the future might see a recovery in the market.
The good news is that if you are trying to invest in the currency, the current situation means that it is probably best to stick with the FTSE100 index, as it contains the largest number of stocks available. Even so, a lot of attention has been given to the big banks. These are seen as having some of the biggest long-term potential.
For now, it looks like they are unlikely to fall too far in relation to the rest of the market. The majority of the companies in this index are in fact international banks. In fact, they represent almost the entire UK banking sector, which represents about one-third of the overall value of the FTSE100. This gives us a bit of a head start.
The key thing to remember is that you should avoid investing in stocks that have been included in the FTSE100 index. until the Bank of England has raised interest rates.
If you do invest in stocks in this index, you should also avoid the larger financial institutions such as banks as well. It is much better to focus your energies on smaller businesses which are likely to benefit from the upturn in the UK economy, as this would provide you with some great opportunities to increase your investment portfolio.